On August 6, a Long March 6 rocket emblazoned with the Chinese flag roared off the launch pad of the Taiyuan Satellite Launch Center, spewing fire and plumes of smoke. Its powerful engines hoisted 18 communications satellites into low Earth orbit, or LEO.
That cosmic neighborhood below an altitude of 2,000 kilometers is currently dominated by Starlink, the internet service of Elon Musk’s SpaceX, which accounts for the vast majority of satellites circling our planet.
Starlink does not serve customers in China, which maintains tight control over what its internet users see and send. So the August launch was hailed as a “milestone” for Beijing’s drive to establish itself in the satellite internet sector, a mission that experts say holds security significance as well as the potential for Beijing to export its restrictive model of online governance.
Still, those close to the Chinese space program concede that even the world’s number two space power has a long way to go. “China is now trying very hard to catch up, and the next 5–10 years are pivotal for strategic development and growth,” said one Chinese space insider, who declined to be named due to the sensitivity of the topic.
Unlike terrestrial networks, space-based internet offers access virtually anywhere, from the deserts to the oceans. Satellites can also ensure connectivity in wartime, even if basic infrastructure is destroyed. LEO satellites offer faster communications and lower latency than those in higher orbits, due to their proximity to Earth.
China’s ambitions may be even bigger than Musk’s. As of August, China had applied to the International Telecommunication Union for spectrum for 51,300 LEO satellites, according to an article by a senior engineer affiliated with China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation, published by state media outlet Xinhua. SpaceX is understood to be seeking 42,000 satellites, according to media reports.
But SpaceX has a big head start. It has been launching Starlink satellites at an unprecedented pace since the first in 2019, becoming the world’s single largest satellite operator by far. As of early October, it had more than 6,400 in orbit, according to Jonathan McDowell at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, who runs a website tracking satellite fleets. Starlink already offers internet services to over 4 million users in at least 102 countries.
China’s space program has been racking up its own achievements, such as a recent mission that brought back the first samples from the far side of the moon. Nevertheless, it is chasing the US in the satellite internet business.
One of the highest hurdles is that Beijing has yet to master reusable rocket technology to match SpaceX’s Falcon system, the Chinese source said. The Falcon can launch dozens of satellites per flight and the booster can land vertically, allowing the same one to be used multiple times.
“Initially, China’s rocket technology was comparable to that of the US, but the gap has been greatly widened since the emergence of SpaceX,” the person said.
China has designated satellite constellations a priority and sought to mobilize both the state and private sectors to avoid being left behind.
Shortly after the maiden Starlink launch in 2019, Beijing established a state-owned enterprise called China SatNet to bring together public and private resources for satellite production. This July, construction started on a “rocket street” complex in Beijing, including a reusable technology innovation center that aims to design the country’s first multiple-flight rocket by 2028, according to state media.
China had 537 operating commercial aerospace companies at the end of last year, engaging in satellite manufacturing, launch, and ground services. But the Chinese expert stressed that the sector is highly capital-intensive and requires state support if it is to compete with the US.
“China is concurrently exploring two strategies: delving into reusable rocket technology while at the same time using a ‘winning by quantity’ strategy by using more, less-advanced launch vehicles,” the person said. Given that some SpaceX blueprints are public, and that China is closely studying the company’s launches, the expert was confident that it “will only be a matter of time for China to catch up.”
China plans to launch as many as 3,900 satellites into LEO by 2027, moving toward a larger ambition of having at least three mega constellations comprising over 10,000 satellites each. These are called GW, Qianfan (formerly known as G60), and Honghu. The more the constellations are completed, the better their internet coverage will be.
Ian Christensen, a senior director at the Secure World Foundation and an expert on commercial space and satellites, said that for China and the US alike, there are national security and socioeconomic reasons to develop these constellations through public-private cooperation. “Even though Starlink is a private company, a big market for its services are government customers,” he said. “So government support for these constellations is important.”
Satellite internet services will help China expand connectivity. Despite being home to the world’s highest number of internet users, China also has the second-highest unconnected population after India, with over 330 million people still offline as of January, according to a report by research site Datareportal.
But China’s satellite ambitions are also about guaranteeing the Communist Party’s grip on the flow of information. In a 2022 interview with the Financial Times, Musk said that Beijing had sought assurances from him that SpaceX would not sell Starlink in China, which blocks most U.S. internet companies’ services and has its own equivalents.
“One of the reasons that China doesn’t allow Starlink to operate in the country is that they want to have control over what people can access on the internet, akin to the Great Firewall,” said Steven Fedstein, a senior fellow at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, referring to Beijing’s walled off version of cyberspace.
Western experts agree that there is no reason to think China will not meet its satellite goals. Once it does, they expect Beijing will use its LEO broadband network like uses other projects such as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI): to extend its political influence.
“China will use it in a way that is in alignment with its values and system at home, and it would be an extension of its approach to the internet in China that it tries to export to other countries,” said Clayton Swope, deputy director of the Aerospace Security Project and a senior fellow in the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
“As China launches constellations, it probably intends to have a global business model where it’s looking for customers in places like Africa,” Swope said. “But the question is, will those future initiatives be profitable when they deploy?”
China has already started exporting its internet connections. In May, Beijing-based satellite company GalaxySpace conducted the first trial of a LEO broadband internet service in Thailand.
Some experts warn that China’s impending rise as a global satellite internet provider could lead to the proliferation of Beijing-style “digital authoritarianism.”
A recent report by Mercedes Page, senior fellow at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, said that the centralized nature of satellite internet, with data routed through limited ground stations, makes it even easier to monitor and filter content. “Countries that use China’s satellite internet service providers could more easily control what information is accessible within their borders, much as the Great Firewall of China operates domestically,” she wrote. “This could mean blocking politically sensitive topics, monitoring user activity, or shutting down the internet during unrest.”
At the same time, she said that client countries “may risk being pressured to comply with Beijing’s demands, including censoring content critical of China, sharing sensitive data or suppressing domestic dissent in China’s interests.”
Dimitrios Stroikos, head of the Space Policy project at the London School of Economics IDEAS, a think tank, said there is indeed a risk of China exporting its draconian internet controls through its satellite constellations, although he stressed this would be a double-edged sword.
“If Beijing decides to do so, this will involve the risk of dissuading other countries from using its satellite constellations, undermining the global influence and market share it seeks to achieve,” he told Nikkei Asia. “Thus, Beijing would face an important dilemma.”
Either way, Stroikos added, “There is the risk of a bifurcated satellite internet ecosystem emerging, with Chinese-led space infrastructure representing one camp and a US-linked network another.”
“This will further complicate efforts to regulate and govern satellite mega constellations,” he said.
The satellite competition adds to broader worries about how the future of space may be shaped by severe tensions between powers here on Earth. The US and China are both pursuing lunar programs that many see as a burgeoning race for resources on the moon. American officials, meanwhile, have been warning of a Russian program to put a nuclear weapon in orbit, although Moscow denies this.
Every space technology, Chinese or otherwise, could have a dual use, said Swope at CSIS. He emphasized the importance of looking for ways for the West and China to work together to ensure there is no space arms race, and to ensure safe and sustainable space operations that benefit both countries.
“To me, the biggest concern is that we don’t have established norms and rules of conduct between the two leading space powers,” Swope said. “That is the greatest threat to the security of space.”
This article first appeared on Nikkei Asia. It has been republished here as part of 36Kr’s ongoing partnership with Nikkei.